Fooled by Randomness

Say suppose you are handed a revolver with just one bullet inside it and the cartridge is spun. You are asked to point this to my head — and pull the trigger. You can quickly calculate that the probability of that trigger action putting my brain out of my head is 1/6.

Probability is very clear in this scenario. Often things in life are probabilistic — the only catch is that the probability is not very clear, or the probability is so small that we consider it as if it doesn't exist — and pull the trigger as if there's no bullet.

Say suppose you realize that you haven't renewed your health insurance. You procrastinate on it and a few weeks pass by — nothing happens. A few months pass by — nothing happens. The thought itself that something can happen to you fizzles out of your brain. You are pulling the trigger as if there's no bullet.

"Reality delivers fatal bullets very infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries one forgets the existence of the bullet, under a numbing false sense of security."

A few examples of being fooled by randomness:

• Ignoring single point failures
• Undermining insurance
• Considering catastrophe will never happen
• "No need to upgrade"
• "I don't exercise but I am fit"